ABSTRACT
This longitudinal study (2010–2022) analyzes trends in malaria burden across Ondo State, Nigeria, leveraging high-resolution data from the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP). The research tracks three critical epidemiological indicators—incidence rate (cases per 1,000 population), infection prevalence (per 100 children), and mortality rate (deaths per 100,000 population)—revealing consistent declines over the 13-year period. Incidence decreased by 25.7% (from 378.65 to 281.36 cases/1,000), infection prevalence fell by 26.0% (41.31% to 30.55%), and mortality declined by 36.5% (150.07 to 95.30 deaths/100,000). Notable fluctuations occurred, including a 2020 incidence resurgence (312.12) and a 2018 mortality spike (108.18), attributed to climatic variability and intervention challenges. Statistical analysis demonstrated strong positive correlations between incidence and mortality (r= 0.92) and incidence and prevalence (r = 0.85). Linear regression forecasts predict continued improvement by 2025, with mortality projected at 88.45 deaths/100,000. These trends are linked to scaled-up interventions such as insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), seasonal chemoprevention (SMC), and community health programs. However, persistent challenges like insecticide resistance, urbanization, climate impacts, and funding gaps threaten sustainability. The study underscores significant subnational heterogeneity, with higher burdens in coastal and forested zones compared to urban centers, emphasizing the need for localized strategies aligned with Sustainable Development Goal 3 (SDG 3). These findings provide evidence to optimize resource allocation, adapt interventions to regional epidemiological profiles, and sustain malaria control progress in Nigeria’s high-burden regions.
Keywords: Malaria Burden, Ondo State Nigeria, Longitudinal Analysis, Epidemiological Trends, Disease Incidence Reduction
